Possible Scenarios For A US And Saudi Coalition Ground Attack On Yemen (Map)

It appears that one of the goals behind the massive shipments of weapons and military forces is to set the stage for a major conflict in areas controlled by Ansar Allah in Yemen. Last year, American officials discussed the need for a ground operation along the western coast of Yemen to sever Ansar Allah’s access to the port of Hudaydah and limit their influence in the region. Additionally, Yemeni military exercises have involved practicing both defensive and offensive tactics at sea and on land, with over 1.1 million people and tribal groups in Yemen undergoing military training through a program known as “popular mobilization.”

Recently, there have been indications of US preparations for a ground conflict:

1. American fighter jets have been conducting airstrikes along the lines of conflict in Yemen, particularly in the western and southern regions of Marib province, the Al-Jawf desert, and to the south of Hudaydah. The primary objective of these attacks is to weaken Ansar Allah’s defense lines in these areas, allowing the forces loyal to the resigned government to advance without significant resistance.
2. The aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson has entered the Arabian Sea and was last reported moving toward the Gulf of Aden. It is anticipated that this carrier, in conjunction with the USS Harry S. Truman, will provide air support and execute heavy attacks deep into Ansar Allah positions.

This evidence suggests that a ground battle in Yemen, centered on forces affiliated with the Saudi coalition and supported by US airpower, is imminent. According to the Wall Street Journal, Saudi officials have informed their American counterparts that they will not partake in the operation due to threats posed by Ansar Allah and the severe repercussions of their assaults. Hence, the probability of the Islah Party militants, Home Shield Forces, and other Saudi-affiliated factions participating in ground operations against Ansar Allah is low.

However, field evidence indicates that the United Arab Emirates will be involved in the operation against Ansar Allah. Although Reuters has cited officials from the UAE denying this involvement, their role is evident. They have facilitated communication between officials of the Southern Transitional Council and Tariq Saleh with US forces, providing essential support to prepare these factions. Additionally, the Emirates has deployed an Israeli-made radar at its base in Puntland state, located in northern Somalia, to counter missile and drone attacks from Yemeni armed forces targeting the Gulf of Aden.

Given the direction of the Saudi coalition’s ground assaults in recent years and the current conditions in Yemen, the fronts prioritized for a ground attack include southern Hudaydah, western Marib, the Al-Jawf desert, the western cities of Taiz province, southern Al-Bayda, and Al-Dhale. Both the Yemeni government and Ansar Allah have made necessary preparations for this impending attack. However, support from the US and the Saudi coalition in terms of air and logistical resources could significantly disrupt Yemen’s sea and air communications through Sanaa airport and the port of Hudaydah.